2017 Forecast Performance

ReqSim forecast performance of 2017 monsoon season. Provides a visual comparison of the forecasted and observed water level at the major river locations inside Bangladesh [For first-time visitors, please wait a while. The interactive map is loading].

Forecast Performance (Statistics)

Forecast period: Jun 1 – Oct 15, 2019

Mean Absolute Error (meter)

Station Name	3-day	5-day	7-day	10-day
Amalshid	0.89	1.25	1.41	1.53
Aricha	0.25	0.36	0.43	0.53
Bahadurabad	0.22	0.29	0.41	0.52
Bhagyakul	0.22	0.30	0.39	0.50
Bhairab.Bazar	0.18	0.24	0.28	0.37
C.Nawabganj	0.35	0.52	0.64	0.81
Chandpur	0.38	0.50	0.52	0.48
Chilmari	0.27	0.29	0.31	0.42
Dhaka	0.13	0.19	0.24	0.29
Faridpur	0.08	0.13	0.17	0.24
Goalondo	0.22	0.32	0.39	0.47
Gorai.RB	0.36	0.42	0.47	0.57
Habiganj	1.44	1.63	1.79	2.04
Hardinge.Bridge	0.26	0.39	0.47	0.58
Jagir	0.15	0.22	0.29	0.40
Jamalpur	0.38	0.63	0.90	1.09
Kanaighat	0.73	1.00	1.18	1.47
Mymensingh	0.37	0.65	0.96	1.22
Narayanganj	0.15	0.20	0.23	0.28
Nayarhat	0.09	0.12	0.16	0.24
Noonkhawa	0.32	0.46	0.51	0.57
Pankha	0.48	0.69	0.80	0.87
Rajshahi	0.38	0.53	0.59	0.64
Rohanpur	0.40	0.58	0.68	0.83
Sheola	0.67	1.06	1.30	1.58
Sherpur	0.29	0.48	0.64	0.84
Sirajganj	0.22	0.29	0.37	0.51
Sylhet	0.50	0.68	0.87	1.08
Taraghat	0.19	0.32	0.47	0.67
Tongi	0.13	0.20	0.25	0.31

Coefficient of determination (R²)

Station Name	3-day	5-day	7-day	10-day
Amalshid	0.79	0.63	0.59	0.46
Aricha	0.94	0.86	0.78	0.62
Bahadurabad	0.95	0.92	0.87	0.75
Bhagyakul	0.95	0.92	0.86	0.72
Bhairab.Bazar	0.94	0.87	0.79	0.68
Chandpur	0.87	0.84	0.82	0.74
C.Nawabganj	0.97	0.93	0.92	0.90
Chilmari	0.90	0.89	0.86	0.74
Dhaka	0.94	0.91	0.88	0.83
Faridpur	0.99	0.97	0.95	0.91
Goalondo	0.95	0.88	0.81	0.66
Gorai.RB	0.96	0.94	0.94	0.91
Habiganj	0.37	0.16	0.09	0.12
Hardinge.Bridge	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.93
Jagir	0.91	0.82	0.71	0.58
Jamalpur	0.96	0.92	0.86	0.76
Kanaighat	0.72	0.56	0.49	0.41
Mymensingh	0.97	0.93	0.86	0.77
Narayanganj	0.91	0.86	0.82	0.76
Nayarhat	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.91
Noonkhawa	0.86	0.76	0.77	0.68
Pankha	0.96	0.93	0.92	0.91
Rajshahi	0.97	0.95	0.94	0.92
Rohanpur	0.96	0.92	0.90	0.86
Sheola	0.81	0.67	0.60	0.52
Sherpur	0.88	0.81	0.76	0.68
Sirajganj	0.93	0.87	0.82	0.66
Sylhet	0.77	0.62	0.53	0.44
Taraghat	0.99	0.96	0.91	0.79
Tongi	0.96	0.93	0.91	0.88

Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient (NSE)

Station Name	3-day	5-day	7-day	10-day
Amalshid	0.70	0.34	0.05	-0.19
Aricha	0.94	0.86	0.78	0.61
Bahadurabad	0.95	0.91	0.83	0.70
Bhagyakul	0.92	0.83	0.72	0.55
Bhairab.Bazar	0.90	0.81	0.74	0.64
Chandpur	0.34	-0.08	-0.21	-0.20
C.Nawabganj	0.97	0.93	0.92	0.89
Chilmari	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.73
Dhaka	0.92	0.85	0.76	0.65
Faridpur	0.99	0.97	0.95	0.90
Goalondo	0.94	0.87	0.80	0.66
Gorai.RB	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.91
Habiganj	-1.57	-2.27	-2.91	-3.94
Hardinge.Bridge	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.92
Jagir	0.90	0.81	0.69	0.50
Jamalpur	0.92	0.80	0.61	0.39
Kanaighat	0.70	0.42	0.13	-0.35
Mymensingh	0.94	0.82	0.64	0.42
Narayanganj	0.90	0.84	0.78	0.67
Nayarhat	0.98	0.97	0.94	0.89
Noonkhawa	0.86	0.75	0.75	0.63
Pankha	0.96	0.93	0.91	0.89
Rajshahi	0.97	0.95	0.93	0.92
Rohanpur	0.96	0.91	0.90	0.86
Sheola	0.73	0.26	-0.18	-0.74
Sherpur	0.78	0.42	-0.08	-0.92
Sirajganj	0.92	0.87	0.79	0.61
Sylhet	0.74	0.48	0.19	-0.23
Taraghat	0.97	0.93	0.84	0.69
Tongi	0.95	0.89	0.83	0.71

Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) (meter)

Station Name	3-day	5-day	7-day	10-day
Amalshid	1.03	1.48	1.72	1.86
Aricha	0.29	0.43	0.53	0.67
Bahadurabad	0.28	0.37	0.50	0.64
Bhagyakul	0.25	0.36	0.46	0.56
Bhairab.Bazar	0.23	0.32	0.37	0.43
Chandpur	0.42	0.54	0.56	0.54
C.Nawabganj	0.51	0.72	0.76	0.89
Chilmari	0.37	0.37	0.40	0.53
Dhaka	0.17	0.23	0.29	0.34
Faridpur	0.11	0.17	0.22	0.29
Goalondo	0.28	0.40	0.49	0.61
Gorai.RB	0.53	0.59	0.62	0.70
Habiganj	1.51	1.70	1.86	2.11
Hardinge.Bridge	0.34	0.49	0.60	0.71
Jagir	0.21	0.30	0.38	0.47
Jamalpur	0.46	0.73	1.01	1.25
Kanaighat	0.91	1.22	1.48	1.78
Mymensingh	0.43	0.73	1.06	1.34
Narayanganj	0.19	0.23	0.28	0.33
Nayarhat	0.12	0.16	0.21	0.29
Noonkhawa	0.45	0.58	0.57	0.68
Pankha	0.63	0.88	0.94	1.00
Rajshahi	0.52	0.67	0.73	0.79
Rohanpur	0.53	0.76	0.81	0.94
Sheola	0.77	1.25	1.55	1.81
Sherpur	0.32	0.53	0.71	0.93
Sirajganj	0.29	0.38	0.47	0.61
Sylhet	0.61	0.85	1.05	1.28
Taraghat	0.24	0.38	0.56	0.75
Tongi	0.16	0.23	0.29	0.36